CS2 trade-up: contracts, calculator and odds

What is a trade-up contract in CS2?

In a trade-up contract you hand over ten skins of the same rarity and receive a skin of the next rarity tier up. Which one exactly comes out depends on the collections used and the Floatvalues of your ten items. So it is not pure gambling without rules — rarity, collection and float together determine the possible result and its probability.

Step by step

The process is the same for all contracts and can be practised on cheap skins.

1. Choose ten skins the same rarity (z. B. alle Mil-Spec).
2. Mind the collections — the output comes from them.
3. Check the float of each input; the average sets the condition.
4. Start the contract and verify the result in your history.

Trade-up calculator: estimating the odds correctly

Ein Trade-up calculator (also a “trade-up simulator”) saves you the hand calculation. You enter your ten input skins with their float values, and the tool shows the possible results, their probability as a percentage and the expected average float. So you see, before you commit, whether a contract is statistically worthwhile.

• Input: 10 skins of the same rarity + float.
• Berechnung: possible output per collection and its chance as a percentage.
• Output-Float: the average of the inputs sets the float of the result.
• Entscheidung: you compare the stake value and the expected value.

Rarities and their order

A trade-up always raises the skin by one tier. The rough order:

Rarity	Colour	Trade-up output
Consumer	white	Industrial
Industrial	hellblau	Mil-Spec
Mil-Spec	blau	Restricted
Restricted	lila	Classified
Classified	pink	Covert

Trade-up or upgrade — the difference

Both mechanics pursue the same goal but differ in route and control.

Kriterium	Trade-up contract	Upgrade
Input	10 skins of the same rarity	skin or balance, your choice
Result	a skin one tier higher	a freely chosen target skin
Steuerung	via collection & float	via multiplier & target choice
chance in advance	via the calculator	shown before you start

The upgrade mechanic is explained on the Startseite, and opening cases in the Cases.

Example of a simple trade-up

You use ten Mil-Spec skins (blue) from one collection. The contract produces a Restricted skin (purple) from the same or a mixed collection. If the average float is 0.15, the result lands more in the “Factory New”–“Minimal Wear” band. If you mix collections, the probability spreads across several outputs — the calculator shows each variant with a percentage.

Float and condition of the result

Float describes wear from 0 (new) to 1 (heavily used). In a trade-up the average of your ten inputs counts — the lower it is, the better the condition.

Kategorie	Float-Bereich	Value
Factory New	0.00 – 0.07	highest
Minimal Wear	0.07 – 0.15	hoch
Field-Tested	0.15 – 0.38	mittel
Well-Worn / Battle-Scarred	0.38 – 1.00	niedriger

Common beginner mistakes

The most common mistake is mixing rarities — the contract needs ten skins of the same derselben tier. The second is ignoring collections: they are exactly what determines the possible output. The third is counting only on the most expensive result — the real expected value is the weighted average of all outputs.

Play mindfully

Trade-ups involve an element of chance. A calculator improves the estimate but guarantees nothing. Only stake what you are willing to lose, set yourself limits and treat it as entertainment. Strictly 18+. Help: BeGambleAware.org.

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Weiterlesen: Trade CS2 skins · Guide: how upgrades work · Opening cases

Trade-up or upgrade — when to use each

A trade-up and an upgrade both aim at a better skin, but they suit different situations. A trade-up is for when you hold ten lower-value skins of the same rarity and want to consolidate them into one a tier higher, with the output shaped by the collections and the average float. The upgrader is for when you want to aim at one freely chosen target and see the exact chance and multiplier before you commit. Neither beats buying the skin you want outright on pure value — both carry the house edge — so the choice is about control and what you already hold.

Reading a trade-up calculator result

A calculator takes your ten inputs with their float values and returns the possible outputs, each with a percentage and an expected average float. Read it as a distribution, not a promise: the real value of the contract is the weighted average of every possible output, not the single most expensive one. If you mix collections, the probability spreads across more results — handy for aiming at a specific skin, but it lowers the chance of any one of them. Treat the calculator as a way to estimate, never to guarantee.